Is agile dead yet?
Short answer: no.
If you are interested in the longer answer, then read below.
Data and metrics on agile's proposed death is last updated: 8th december 2024.
A little background on agile's death
If you haven't noticed, agile "dies" approximately every three months. Blogs, LinkedIn, podcasts, and social media will be flooded with announcements that agile has now died. There will be comments saying that it was a great run, but it is now definitely over. Then, there will be silence and you won't hear anything for three months, until the cycle repeats all over again.
I want to bring data into this conversation (after all, this is the the agile metrics), and assess the typical arguments for the death of agile. I will try to keep the data updated frequently, and if you are ever in doubt whether agile has died, then you can check this page directly with IsAgileDeadYet.com.
The long answer: is agile really dead?
Below, I have compiled a list of the top arguments I see every three months, when agile is proclaimed dead. If there is an argument you want to be assessed and analyzed with data, then let me know, and I'll see if I can add it to the growing and creative list of arguments on why agile is dead.
- Agile jobs are disappearing
- Agile does not work
- Agile is not trendy anymore
Agile jobs are disappearing
Yes, agile practitioners have been laid off in significant numbers over the past years—not just sporadically, but on a large scale. Some take this as evidence and claim that it proves that agile is now dead, often combining it with the following arguments:
- Agile coaches bring no value, which is why XYZ company fired their whole department.
- Agile coaches or scrum masters are unnecessary overhead for development teams, which is why they have been laid off.
- Companies are moving away from agile, which is why agile practitioners have been let go.
- There are no more agile related jobs, after layoffs have happened.
- I see a lot of "Open To Work" from agile practitioners on LinkedIn, and they can't find a new job.
Great arguments. Now, let's try to add data to the conversation, and start with job postings data:
In the context of software development and IT operations, we do observe that number of job postings have fallen sharply after mid-2022. It is actually below February 2020 levels in these sectors. So, fewer job postings in roles that work with agile practitioners.
As you may have noticed, I also added the index for project management related jobs to show the comparison. And I know, project management is very, very broad - but it does include agile-related roles too. Interestingly, they perform better than software development and IT operations.
Regardless, for these sectors, the data suggests that companies were hiring massively until mid-2022. So, let's also look at tech layoffs in the same period:
Thousands of companies have laid off employees during the same time period, which aligns with job posting trends for nearly the same timeframe. Companies started hiring freezes, downsizing, right-sizing, whatever you call it: firing people. Why did it happen? Well, there were quite a bit of broader economic factors at play starting in 2022 (hello inflation and monetary policies!).
What I’m trying to say here is that layoffs haven’t been exclusive to agile roles. software engineers and other technical positions have been affected too. With fewer teams, there’s naturally less need for agile-related roles. Interpreting fewer job postings and layoffs in agile roles as evidence that agile is dead is like saying software is dead because there are fewer software engineering positions. A reduction in roles doesn't equal to the end of the field of agile.
I took a micro-level example as well, looking at job postings for a random US city: Dallas, Texas. How many agile-related roles could I find? And how many software engineering roles in comparison. This exercise, you can do in any city of your choice and conclude yourself. This was conducted early December 2024:
I found a 1 to 8 ratio when searching job postings. Specifically, I came across 25 agile coach and scrum master roles compared to around 200 software engineer roles. If I tweak the search, I can find even more engineer roles, depending on the titles various companies use. The same applies to agile-related roles. For example, I found several "project manager" positions that closely resembled scrum master roles, such as "technology project manager". Also, one agile-related role per eight software engineers? That's close to an ideal team size.
So, is agile dead? If it was, I would expect jobs to vanish completely. They haven't.
Agile does not work
True, agile does not work sometimes. Other times it does. There are so many gut feelings that are at play here. From a micro-level, you can have had a bad experience with the implementation of agile, where the product completely failed. Is that enough to declare all of agile dead? Maybe in those specific cases, but what about for the cases with opposite experience - where the product was a resounding success through the usage of agile methodologies? Again, gut feeling alert.
Taking a macro-level approach with less gut feeling however, is difficult. Mainly because whether agile works or not, can depend entirely on your definition of success. But let's try anyways.
In academia, the success of using agile principles has been debated since the publishing of the Agile Software Development Manifesto. Some old and newer study results are mentioned below:
- Our findings suggest that Agile methods do have a positive impact on both dimensions of project succes [efficiency and stakeholder satisfaction]. Serrador & Pinto (2015). Does Agile work?—A quantitative analysis of agile project success
- The results indicated that practices which improves customer feedback, helps the team to understand customer needs and improves the team process, are most likely to affect project success. Henriksen & Pedersen (2017). A qualitative case study on agile practices and project success in agile software projects.
- Analysis suggested that hybrid and agile approaches significantly increase stakeholder success over traditional approaches. Sandstø & Reme-Ness (2021). Agile practices and impacts on project success.
- Successful completion rates for agile initiatives are at 40%, whereas only 15% of waterfall projects were successfully completed. Mishra & Alzoubi (2023). Structured software development versus agile software development: a comparative analysis.
Above articles are correlating agile with success. You can no doubt find many more examples in academia, while you can also find the opposite. But the sheer existence of these and other studies show that there are real-life examples on agile working. Therefore, using the argument that agile is not working to announce its funeral, is absurd at best.
I don't neglect that agile doesn't work sometimes. But is that because of agile or other factors? The odds for product failure is high. Some say 9 out 10 products fail, other's provide numbers ranging from 70-80%. Regardless of studies, it is safe to say that majority of products fail. The question then becomes if agile and its principles will help you avoid the reasons for failure, and if you can beat the odds. Below, a list of reasons for startup failure. That is what you are up against, the question is if agile and principles of agile are better at beating those odds. Below are different reasons for startup failure:
Above articles correlate agile with success, and you can undoubtedly find many more examples in academia. Just as you can find studies arguing the opposite. However, the sheer existence of these and other studies demonstrates that there are real-life examples of agile working. Therefore, using the argument that agile doesn’t work to justify announcing its “funeral” is, at best, absurd.
This isn’t to say that agile always works. Failures happen, like with many other things. But is that due to agile itself or other factors? Let's turn to the classic odds of product failure. Some claim that 9 out of 10 products fail, while others provide figures ranging from 70% to 80%. Regardless of the exact statistic, it’s safe to say that the majority of products fail.
The real question is whether agile and its principles can help you avoid the common reasons for failure and beat those odds. I will let you decide, by providing the below list of common reasons for startup failure. These reasons are the challenges that you're up against, honestly:
Looking at the reasons for failure above, I can't stop wondering how much you could have mitigated if you applied just one agile principle:
- Our highest priority is to satisfy the customer through early and continuous delivery of valuable software.
At the same time, I am also pointing to the fact that agile or not, sometimes you fail irrespective of what methodology you use. It is very hard to point to agile as the reason for failure, if for example new legislation makes your product obsolete. What I’m trying to say here is that sometimes products just fail, and it’s not because of a good or bad implementation of agile. It’s also not because some “new and fancy framework” wasn’t adopted instead, despite claims that tie agile’s “death” to such situations. On that point, most new and fancy frameworks actually use agile principles if you starting peeling of its layers. Therefore, I just want to say that failure can happen for reasons unrelated to the methodology, framework or principles that you use.
So, is agile dead? If it was, I would expect zero studies or cases showing success from initiatives driven by agile methodologies and principles - and that's not true.
Agile is not trendy anymore
One of the graphs I see most often when people claim that the era of agile is over is from Google Trends. These graphs typically show that "agile" is no longer trending and has reached its peak. The problem is, they usually focus solely on "agile." When I add other relevant terms, like "scrum" or "software development," the trends look remarkably similar. Remember the graphs on job postings and layoffs in this article? We see the same trend:
Trends data like above can be very misleading. This shows what people are searching for. When something becomes popular, searches go up. When there were lots of jobs, many people showed interest and up it went. Maybe there were lots of new-joiners in these fields. But novelty can fade. That does not mean that agile principles are not embedded in ways of working already. It might just not be fancy anymore - and that's ok. Jobs still exist. Many people are still working with this, and more importantly, value is being delivered.
As an example, I don't hear that many people proclaiming that project management has died. On Google Trends, project management has been dying since 2004. Is it dead? Absolutely not, in fact it is still a foundational practice in most organization. Is it new and fancy? Nope, but it is well-known and trusted.
So, is agile dead? If it was, I would expect zero searches for it - and that's not true.
